The BWF CERTIFIRE Fire Door & Doorset Scheme Quarterly Trends Report

Merchants expect to sell more fire doors in 2005

In the three months October to December 2004, twenty five per cent of merchants improved sales of timber fire doors compared with the previous quarter. Twenty-one per cent saw a decrease and 54% stayed the same.

The difference between the number of companies reporting an increase over those reporting a decrease is the net balance, expressed as a percentage. A positive balance indicates growth, a balance of zero implies little has changed.

On this basis, a net 4% of merchants increased sales of timber fire doors in the last quarter compared with the previous three months (chart 1). Forty-four percent of those who improved sales claimed increases of 10% or more.

Growth was most widespread among large merchants (13%) and outlets in the North (16%). However, merchants in Scotland fell back (-17%). Builders' merchants (9%) did better than timber merchants (-5%) who recorded a drop.

October-December sales compared with the previous three months - by size

Size	Increase	Decrease	Same	Total	Base
Small	27%	22%	51%	100	46
Medium	24%	24%	52%	100	38
Large	25%	13%	62%	100	16
Total	25%	21%	54%	100	100

October-December sales compared with the previous three months - by region

Region	Increase	Decrease	Same	Total	Base
South	31%	23%	46%	100	40
Midlands	24%	24%	52%	100	29
North	21%	5%	74%	100	19
Scotland	17%	33%	50%	100	12
Total	25%	21%	54%	100	100

Timber fire door sales to new build housing, Commercial RMI and Housing RMI were up in the last quarter compared with the previous quarter with a net 5% of merchants reporting growth. But a net -6% of outlets saw sales to new build non-housing fall over the period.

Sales, year-on-year

A net 44% of merchants improved timber fire doors sales in the last three months compared with the same quarter last year (chart 2). Fifty-three per cent saw sales go up ten percent or more.

Merchants of all sizes increased sales of fire doors. Large outlets did best (56%). A balance of more than half the outlets in the Midlands recorded higher sales closely followed by the South (49%). A net 33% of merchants in Scotland and 28% in the North also improved sales.

A net 46% of timber merchants increased sales of fire doors over the period compared with 33% of builders' merchants. Local chains (80%) reported higher sales than independent outlets (46%) or national chains (31%).

Ninety-one per cent of all fire doors sold by merchants in the last 12 months had a 30 minute fire door resistance rating. A net 31% of merchants saw sales of FD30 fire doors go up over this period. Merchants selling FD60s (26%) and FD90s (75%) also improved over the last year.

Sales forecasts

A net 40% of merchants expect to sell more timber fire doors in the next quarter compared with the previous three months (chart 3). An equal number of small and large merchants (31%) expect sales to go up. But medium-sized (54%) outlets have higher expectations. More merchants in the Midlands (57%) forecast better sales in the next three months than other regions. Timber merchants (40%) are slightly more positive than builders' merchants (33%).

Selling Prices

A net 26% of merchants increased their selling prices in the months October to December 2004 (chart 4). Merchants of all sizes were equally active in raising prices. Merchants in the Midlands (40%) were more confident in their pricing than the South or Scotland (26% & 25% respectively) or the North (5%). National chains (31%) and more independent outlets (26%) increased prices than local chains (10%).

Price forecasts

Just under four in five merchants expect to put up prices in the next 12 months. Significantly none of the merchants interviewed expect to cut prices. A high proportion of large firms (94%) plan to raise prices but small (76%) and medium-sized companies (72%) are not far behind. Merchants in all regions plan to put up prices over the next year.

More timber merchants (83%) expect to raise prices than builders' merchants (73%).

Buying Prices

A net 38% of merchants reported an increase in purchase costs of timber fire doors compared with three months ago (chart 4). Medium-sized merchants (46%) were more affected than large (38%) or small merchants (31%). More merchants in the Midlands (60%), the North & Scotland (38%) were hit by higher prices than the South (21%). National chains (42%) and independent outlets (41%) had to accept more increases for their fire doors than local chains (10%).

Prospects

A net 23% of merchants are more optimistic now about the overall prospects for the timber fire door market than three months ago (chart 6). Large (38%) and medium-sized outlets (31%) are most confident with none of those interviewed less optimistic. Merchants across the country are positive.

Sales of Fire Door components

A net 10% of merchants improved sales of fire door components in October to December 2004 compared with the previous three months (chart 7). More large firms (20%) increased sales of fire door components than small firms (14%). Medium-sized companies reported little change. Across the country merchants in Scotland recorded the most widespread growth (25%) followed by the South (16%) and North (11%). Outlets in the Midlands saw sales drop (-7%) over the period.

Significantly more local chains (56%) improved sales than national chains (8%) or independents (2%).

A net 27% of merchants increased sales of fire door components in the last three months compared with the same time last year. Sales were strong across all regions and for all sizes of firms.

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“We sell on average 140 fire doors per month. With market buoyancy, new building regulations and increases in the new build market especially for care homes and apartments, we expect to see a yearly increase of at least 10% over the next two years.

“This market however needs specific guidelines so suppliers can make readily available complete fire door sets that comply with regulations.”

Mr Mike Lewis, Timber Products Manager
Robert Price Builders Merchants, Newport

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Fire Door Component Sales, expectations

A net 39% of merchants expect to improve sales of fire door components in the next quarter compared with the previous three months. Expectations are strongest in medium-sized outlets (50%) and small merchants (39%). A net 48% of merchants in the Midlands forecast better sales closely followed by merchants in Scotland (42%). The South (35%) and North (32%) are also positive.

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“Fire door specifications have become an important issue with government legislation over the past few years, both for new build and refurbishment markets.

“I feel that demand for basic fire doors and quality fire doors with choice of design and colour will increase not only in those markets but also in replacing existing internal non rated fire doors in private housing as the public's need to feel more secure escalates.”

Mr D Dearden, Branch Manager
Garstang Timber & Plywood, Preston

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Problems

The main problems for merchants this quarter were price cutting in the market (45%), margin squeeze (35%), and supplier price rises (33%). However, the single biggest problem was price cutting in the market mentioned by 21% of merchants (chart 8). This is in contrast to last quarter's survey where 23% of merchants mentioned supplier service and availability as the single biggest problem.

Stocks

A net 6% of merchants increased their stocks of fire doors compared with the last three months. Stock levels rose in local chains (30%) and independent outlets (7%) but dropped in the nationals (-3%).

Internal & External fire doors sales

Seventy-six per cent of timber fire doors sold this quarter were internal doors. Twenty-four per cent were external doors.

Timber fire doors sold in last 12 months	Merchants' % of fire doors sales		Manufacturers' % of fire doors sales
	Internal	External	Internal	External
By type of Fire Door:
Flush doors	67%	82%	81%	88%
Panel doors	22%	9%	2%	12%
Die formed doors	5%	0%	5%	0%
Laminated timber cored flush doors	5%	4%	7%	0%
Other	1%	5%	5%	0%
Total	100%	100%	100%	100%
All Timber Fire Doors	76%	24%	91%	9%

Fire door components

Eighty-three per cent of merchants interviewed recommend compatible components every time a fire door leaf is sold. However, 17% of merchants do not recommend anything. Interestingly only 32% of merchants say they have had relevant training on compatibility of components but most feel confident they are able to give correct advice.

MANUFACTURERS' SALES

A net 11% of manufacturers reported higher sales in October to December compared with the previous three months. Growth was more widespread among medium-sized manufacturers (38%).

Eighty percent of manufacturers' timber fire sales were sold with a FD30 rating. Seventeen percent were sold with a FD60 rating and three percent with a FD90 and FD120 rating.

A net 37% of manufacturers forecast growth in the next three months compared with the previous quarter. Few expect a drop. Year-on-year expectations are also strong with a net 74% of manufacturers forecasting better sales in the coming quarter compared with the same period last year.

A net 47% of manufacturers are more confident now about the overall prospects for the timber fire door market than three months ago. Significantly, as in last quarter's survey, none of the manufacturers interviewed were downbeat about prospects.

Seventy-nine percent of manufacturers say they advise customers on components. The remaining twenty-one percent do not offer advice.

Comment

“This report underlines the strength and confidence in the timber fire doors market at the moment", says Richard Lambert, Director of the British Woodworking Federation. "The factors driving the growth in the market, such as planning policies promoting development of blocks of flats and townhouses, and substantial housing refurbishment, particularly in the social housing sector, are unlikely to disappear. Indeed, if the early signs of a revival in commercial office construction come to fruition, we could see a further boost.

“But we mustn't allow good sales figures to distract us from the need to continue to improve the quality of the doors on the market. The BWF has worked hard to establish the importance of using independently certificated fire doors in the minds of specifiers, contractors and regulators. We've also pressed home the message that a fire door is only as reliable as the components used to install it. The responses in the most recent surveys show that there is an increased awareness of the importance of compatibility of components.

“Selling prices are likely to creep up in the face of increased timber prices, fuel costs and liability premiums. However, merchants seem confident that they can pass those increases on to the customer; actual and expected price rises haven't affected sales forecasts. Although the doors market remains intensely competitive, there is an optimistic mood going into 2005.”

The Timber Fire Doors Survey, a quarterly trends report, is produced by Michael Rigby Associates, and sponsored by the BWF-CERTIFIRE Fire Door and Doorset Scheme in conjunction with Builders' Merchants' News. The aim is to keep a finger on the timber fire doors' market pulse, and to view merchants' and manufacturers' expectations of market movements. Michael Rigby Associates specialises in fact based marketing in home improvements, DIY and building materials markets. The survey covers a representative sample of 100 timber and builders' merchants as well as manufacturers. Telephone interviews took place between the 1st - 13th January 2005 across a balanced spread of size of firm and geographical area. Numbers employed by branch was used as an indication of size. The categories are small (1-9 employees), medium (10-25) and large (over 25 employees). © Copyright Michael Rigby Associates 2005 Full report available free: call Lucia Di Stazio on (01453) 521621 or from www.521621.com